TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13038227
Played Aug 29Finished
Dominik Lengal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611511117117711
Martin Kucera
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Lengal to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Lengal above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-10
Point 86 set 5, 7-10 — our read held Dominik Lengal at 54.9%
86 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Dominik Lengal 5–3 Martin Kucera Martin Kucera has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:10What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lengal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Lengal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lengal 1825 vs Kucera 1668
Lengal
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lengal 80% vs Kucera 60%
Lengal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lengal 70% vs Kucera 50%
Lengal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lengal +4 · Kucera +2
Lengal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Lengal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lengal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLengal 1.73 / Kucera 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lengal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13038227
Lengal1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 92 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it86% 73 of 85
Kucera2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLengal5wins
AwayKucera3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLengal leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLengal80%4 of 5
AwayKucera66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lengal5Kucera3n = 8Lengal took 5 of 8
S2Lengal5Kucera3n = 8Lengal took 5 of 8
S3Lengal6Kucera2n = 8Lengal took 6 of 8
S4Lengal2Kucera4n = 6Kucera took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricLengalKuceraL − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match40.637.4+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLengalKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 283 vs 67 / 12261.5%54.9%174 / 283 vs 67 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LengalLengal 1.73/Kucera 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Lengal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kucera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal—1111113M. Kucera—9950
LAug 1 · 20:35D. Lengal—9911121M. Kucera—11117143
WAug 1 · 15:35D. Lengal—1211113M. Kucera—10890
LMay 30 · 12:05D. Lengal—10101491M. Kucera—121212113
LMay 8 · 15:05D. Lengal—111291072M. Kucera—6101112113
WApr 3 · 12:05D. Lengal—51211113M. Kucera—1110561
WMar 2 · 17:05D. Lengal—1131112113M. Kucera—51191462
WFeb 27 · 15:35D. Lengal—11115113M. Kucera—761181
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112WAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113WAug 28 · 16:05D. Lengal1.331111123M. Mastera3.2589100WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113LAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
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