TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079066
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Kucera
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119117118––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Kucera above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 65.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kucera 2–0 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kucera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kucera 1696 vs Trnka 1603
Kucera
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucera 20% vs Trnka 80%
Trnka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucera 50% vs Trnka 70%
Trnka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucera +1 · Trnka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kucera) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucera 1.40 / Trnka 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kucera)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13079066
Kucera1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 21 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Trnka2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 23 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKucera2wins
AwayTrnka0wins
Kucera leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKuceraTrnkaK − TBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.528.5+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuceraTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 134 vs 139 / 26554.5%52.5%73 / 134 vs 139 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuceraKucera 1.40/Trnka 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Kucera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kucera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera—1111113T. Trnka—8770
WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera—91111113T. Trnka—119781
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:35M. Kucera1.611013811113J. Ruzicka2.20121111862WAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
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