TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071346
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Beran 2000
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61110121191191012
Tomas Trnka
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingTomas Beran 2000 above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 56.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Beran 2000 6–3 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Beran
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1607 vs Trnka 1652
Trnka
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Trnka 60%
Trnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Trnka 50%
Trnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +2 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Trnka)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 2.20 / Trnka 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Trnka)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13071346
Beran2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 20 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Trnka1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 63 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 47 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBeran6wins
AwayTrnka3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBeran leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayTrnka40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Trnka5n = 9Trnka took 5 of 9
S2Beran5Trnka4n = 9Beran took 5 of 9
S3Beran4Trnka5n = 9Trnka took 5 of 9
S4Beran4Trnka3n = 7Beran took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricBeranTrnkaB − TBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.838.6+0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 133 vs 136 / 25552.6%53.3%70 / 133 vs 136 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaBeran 2.20/Trnka 1.61
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 1 · 17:15T. Beran—4990T. Trnka—1111113
LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran—101100T. Trnka—1211123
WAug 18 · 21:15T. Beran—111011113T. Trnka—612871
WAug 18 · 19:35T. Beran—121111113T. Trnka—148771
WApr 14 · 17:05T. Beran—711116113T. Trnka—11891172
WApr 14 · 14:05T. Beran—1112810113T. Trnka—610111262
LFeb 18 · 17:35T. Beran—1177101T. Trnka—81111123
WDec 11 · 20:05T. Beran—41111113T. Trnka—119781
WDec 9 · 17:05T. Beran—11179113T. Trnka—9151171
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LSep 1 · 14:05T. Beran1.6177111292J. Ruzicka2.201111910113LAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262LAug 21 · 16:35T. Beran1.91115941M. Kucera1.8071111113WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990WSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123
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