TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13059960
Played Sep 1Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119119––––
Tomas Beran 2000
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Tomas Beran 2000 below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 2–6 Tomas Beran 2000 Tomas Trnka has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Beran
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1640 vs Beran 1590
Trnka
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 60% vs Beran 0%
Trnka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 30% vs Beran 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -1 · Beran -5
Beran
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Beran) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.83 / Beran 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Beran)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13059960
Trnka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Beran1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTrnka2wins
AwayBeran6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderBeran leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka25%1 of 4
AwayBeran75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka4Beran4n = 8split evenly
S2Trnka3Beran5n = 8Beran took 5 of 8
S3Trnka4Beran4n = 8split evenly
S4Trnka3Beran4n = 7Beran took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricTrnkaBeranT − BBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.240.9−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaBeranBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 252 vs 68 / 13053.2%52.3%134 / 252 vs 68 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranTrnka 1.83/Beran 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 1 · 15:05T. Trnka—1211123T. Beran—101100
LAug 18 · 21:15T. Trnka—612871T. Beran—111011113
LAug 18 · 19:35T. Trnka—148771T. Beran—121111113
LApr 14 · 17:05T. Trnka—11891172T. Beran—711116113
LApr 14 · 14:05T. Trnka—610111262T. Beran—1112810113
WFeb 18 · 17:35T. Trnka—81111123T. Beran—1177101
LDec 11 · 20:05T. Trnka—119781T. Beran—41111113
LDec 9 · 17:05T. Trnka—9151171T. Beran—11179113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LSep 1 · 14:05T. Beran1.6177111292J. Ruzicka2.201111910113LAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262LAug 21 · 16:35T. Beran1.91115941M. Kucera1.8071111113WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
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