TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469742
Played Aug 21Finished
Tomas Beran 2000
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511911411––
Martin Kucera
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Beran 2000 to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Beran 2000 above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Tomas Beran 2000 at 55.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Beran 2000 3–1 Martin Kucera Martin Kucera has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kucera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Beran
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1666 vs Kucera 1629
Beran
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 60% vs Kucera 40%
Beran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 40% vs Kucera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +1 · Kucera -3
Kucera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kucera) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucera form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.91 / Kucera 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kucera)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12469742
Beran1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 19 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Kucera1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBeran3wins
AwayKucera1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderBeran leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayKuceran = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Kucera0n = 4Beran took 4 of 4
S2Beran1Kucera3n = 4Kucera took 3 of 4
S3Beran2Kucera2n = 4split evenly
S4Beran2Kucera2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBeranKuceraB − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match41.536.0+5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 125 vs 63 / 11654.4%54.3%68 / 125 vs 63 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuceraBeran 1.91/Kucera 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kucera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kucera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WFeb 16 · 18:45T. Beran—11119113M. Kucera—451181
WFeb 16 · 16:35T. Beran—167113113M. Kucera—141131182
LFeb 2 · 18:45T. Beran—1184111M. Kucera—71111133
WFeb 2 · 16:35T. Beran—11911113M. Kucera—911521
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LSep 1 · 14:05T. Beran1.6177111292J. Ruzicka2.201111910113LAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
M. Kucera10
WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113LAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262
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