TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058171
Played Sep 1Finished
Tomas Beran 2000
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116311911117711
Jakub Joksch
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Beran 2000 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Beran 2000 above · Jakub Joksch below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Beran 2000 at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Beran 2000 4–1 Jakub Joksch Jakub Joksch has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Beran
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1578 vs Joksch 1710
Joksch
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 20% vs Joksch 60%
Joksch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Joksch 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -4 · Joksch +2
Beran
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Beran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.73 / Joksch 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Beran)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13058171
Beran1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Joksch2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 22 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBeran4wins
AwayJoksch1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBeran leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayJokschn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Joksch1n = 5Beran took 4 of 5
S2Beran3Joksch2n = 5Beran took 3 of 5
S3Beran1Joksch4n = 5Joksch took 4 of 5
S4Beran4Joksch1n = 5Beran took 4 of 5
S5Beran2Joksch1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBeranJokschB − JBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match44.641.8+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranJokschBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 131 vs 48 / 9751.9%49.5%68 / 131 vs 48 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranBeran 1.73/Joksch 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Joksch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran—11391172J. Joksch—611117113
WJul 6 · 15:05T. Beran—13114113J. Joksch—1161171
WJul 1 · 17:15T. Beran—1321111113J. Joksch—111141392
WJul 1 · 15:05T. Beran—11111011113J. Joksch—13512942
WJun 24 · 15:35T. Beran—11127113J. Joksch—8101181
T. Beran10
WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123LSep 1 · 14:05T. Beran1.6177111292J. Ruzicka2.201111910113LAug 21 · 17:10M. Kucera2.001161110113T. Beran1.7381141262LAug 21 · 16:35T. Beran1.91115941M. Kucera1.8071111113WAug 21 · 15:05M. Mastera1.833680T. Beran1.831111113
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970WSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113LSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442LSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870LSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
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