TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073483
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Joksch
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5116111614511––
Radek Fnukal
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Joksch to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Joksch above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 79 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Joksch at 61.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Joksch 2–2 Radek Fnukal Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Joksch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Joksch 1734 vs Fnukal 1542
Joksch
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Joksch 80% vs Fnukal 40%
Joksch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Joksch 60% vs Fnukal 30%
Joksch
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Joksch +4 · Fnukal +1
Joksch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Joksch) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Joksch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJoksch 1.44 / Fnukal 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Joksch)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13073483
Joksch1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 17 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Fnukal2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 10 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back42% 5 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJoksch2wins
AwayFnukal2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokschn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFnukal66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Joksch1Fnukal3n = 4Fnukal took 3 of 4
S2Joksch2Fnukal2n = 4split evenly
S3Joksch2Fnukal2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJokschFnukalJ − FBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match31.834.0−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokschFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 98 vs 61 / 12250%50%49 / 98 vs 61 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokschJoksch 1.44/Fnukal 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Joksch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fnukal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 19 · 17:45J. Joksch—7720R. Fnukal—1111113
LJul 19 · 14:05J. Joksch—6101181R. Fnukal—11128113
WJul 12 · 11:35J. Joksch—1111113R. Fnukal—7490
WJun 21 · 16:35J. Joksch—611411113R. Fnukal—11911552
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970WSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113LSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442LSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
R. Fnukal10
LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal1.411191113112J. Lovl2.60811415133WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl1.91135991R. Fnukal1.80111111113LAug 14 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.6111111010113R. Fnukal2.2074121262LAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
Upcoming Matches
J. Joksch
Nothing scheduled
R. Fnukal1 of 1 neutral
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