TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12479168
Played Aug 23Finished
Radek Fnukal
Home
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11891111413151113
Jan Lovl
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Fnukal above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 106 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 69.8%
106 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fnukal 13–7 Jan Lovl Jan Lovl has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Fnukal
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fnukal 1579 vs Lovl 1588
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fnukal 20% vs Lovl 60%
Lovl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fnukal 60% vs Lovl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fnukal +1 · Lovl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFnukal 1.41 / Lovl 2.60
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Fnukal)+5.0pp
TT Cup · #12479168
Fnukal1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Lovl2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFnukal5wins
AwayLovl5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFnukal57.1%4 of 7
AwayLovl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fnukal7Lovl3n = 10Fnukal took 7 of 10
S2Fnukal5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S3Fnukal4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S4Fnukal4Lovl3n = 7Fnukal took 4 of 7
S5Fnukal2Lovl3n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFnukalLovlF − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.3+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFnukalLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 118 vs 160 / 30950.9%51.8%60 / 118 vs 160 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalFnukal 1.41/Lovl 2.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.8%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 11:35R. Fnukal—7111481J. Lovl—11216113
WAug 9 · 16:05R. Fnukal—15116113J. Lovl—1371191
WAug 2 · 17:34R. Fnukal—871111113J. Lovl—11119962
WAug 2 · 14:35R. Fnukal—124119113J. Lovl—101151182
LJul 19 · 15:35R. Fnukal—111291192J. Lovl—614118113
WJun 28 · 11:35R. Fnukal—1111113J. Lovl—4260
LJun 5 · 13:15R. Fnukal—61080J. Lovl—1112113
WJun 5 · 12:35R. Fnukal—1111113J. Lovl—7880
LJun 3 · 13:05R. Fnukal—11117722J. Lovl—671111113
LJun 3 · 11:35R. Fnukal—11641282J. Lovl—4111110113
R. Fnukal10
LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl1.91135991R. Fnukal1.80111111113LAug 14 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.6111111010113R. Fnukal2.2074121262LAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
Upcoming Matches
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J. Lovl
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