TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085077
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191141210––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 16–17 Jan Lovl Jan Ruzicka has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1650 vs Lovl 1562
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Lovl 80%
Lovl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Lovl 50%
Lovl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Lovl +3
Lovl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.91 / Lovl 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lovl)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13085077
Ruzicka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 58 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Lovl1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka8wins
AwayLovl2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka66.7%2 of 3
AwayLovl14.3%1 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S2Ruzicka7Lovl3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka8Lovl2n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10
S4Ruzicka6Lovl3n = 9Ruzicka took 6 of 9
S5Ruzicka3Lovl1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaLovlR − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.436.1+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 416 vs 168 / 32551.9%51.7%216 / 416 vs 168 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlRuzicka 1.91/Lovl 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka—591211113J. Lovl—111110472
WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka—91111123J. Lovl—1194101
LSep 5 · 13:40J. Ruzicka—711791J. Lovl—11711113
WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka—861111113J. Lovl—11116972
WAug 30 · 10:05J. Ruzicka—51111113J. Lovl—113691
WAug 22 · 06:35J. Ruzicka—11611113J. Lovl—611941
WAug 15 · 15:05J. Ruzicka—1111113J. Lovl—5780
WAug 9 · 21:40J. Ruzicka—811117113J. Lovl—11921132
WAug 9 · 20:05J. Ruzicka—61111113J. Lovl—114791
LJul 30 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—1113911112J. Lovl—6111113133
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
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