TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044922
Played Aug 30Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Radim Pokorny
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:46 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 66.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 7–25 Radim Pokorny Jan Lovl has won 7 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pokorny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-25 in 32
Pokorny
Correct
gap of 18 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1536 vs Pokorny 1562
Pokorny
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 40% vs Pokorny 20%
Lovl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 50% vs Pokorny 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -2 · Pokorny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Pokorny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 2.63 / Pokorny 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Pokorny)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13044922
Lovl2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Pokorny1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 38 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLovl2wins
AwayPokorny8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPokorny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl66.7%2 of 3
AwayPokorny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Pokorny7n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S2Lovl1Pokorny9n = 10Pokorny took 9 of 10
S3Lovl2Pokorny8n = 10Pokorny took 8 of 10
S4Lovl2Pokorny3n = 5Pokorny took 3 of 5
S5Lovl2Pokorny1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricLovlPokornyL − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.438.5−8.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 315 vs 139 / 28151.4%49.5%162 / 315 vs 139 / 281Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyLovl 2.63/Pokorny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pokorny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl—6760R. Pokorny—1111113
LAug 7 · 10:35J. Lovl—9101161R. Pokorny—11127113
LAug 6 · 12:05J. Lovl—8770R. Pokorny—1111113
LAug 5 · 10:35J. Lovl—61141152R. Pokorny—115114113
LJul 23 · 12:35J. Lovl—117471R. Pokorny—81111113
LJul 16 · 10:35J. Lovl—7860R. Pokorny—1111113
WJul 11 · 09:10J. Lovl—124411113R. Pokorny—101111892
LJul 11 · 06:05J. Lovl—71180R. Pokorny—1113113
WJul 9 · 10:05J. Lovl—115117113R. Pokorny—91141182
LJul 8 · 10:05J. Lovl—71190R. Pokorny—1113113
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153
R. Pokorny10
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170WAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161
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