TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077502
Played Sep 4Finished
Radim Pokorny
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012711116119118
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadim Pokorny above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pokorny 5–4 Radek Fnukal Radek Fnukal has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pokorny 1574 vs Fnukal 1518
Pokorny
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pokorny 20% vs Fnukal 40%
Fnukal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pokorny 30% vs Fnukal 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pokorny -1 · Fnukal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPokorny 2.10 / Fnukal 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fnukal)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13077502
Pokorny2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Fnukal1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 22 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePokorny5wins
AwayFnukal4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderPokorny leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePokorny57.1%4 of 7
AwayFnukaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pokorny7Fnukal2n = 9Pokorny took 7 of 9
S2Pokorny2Fnukal7n = 9Fnukal took 7 of 9
S3Pokorny4Fnukal5n = 9Fnukal took 5 of 9
S4Pokorny4Fnukal3n = 7Pokorny took 4 of 7
S5Pokorny2Fnukal1n = 3Pokorny took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPokornyFnukalP − FBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match40.738.6+2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPokornyFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 298 vs 62 / 12649.7%49.2%148 / 298 vs 62 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalPokorny 2.10/Fnukal 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pokorny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny—1071111113R. Fnukal—12116982
WSep 4 · 11:35R. Pokorny—119811113R. Fnukal—81111852
LJul 12 · 13:05R. Pokorny—1167111R. Fnukal—61111133
WJul 12 · 12:35R. Pokorny—1111113R. Fnukal—9880
WJul 5 · 17:20R. Pokorny—11511113R. Fnukal—611281
WJul 5 · 14:05R. Pokorny—111012153R. Fnukal—31210131
LJun 28 · 13:35R. Pokorny—11129782R. Fnukal—5101111113
LJun 28 · 10:35R. Pokorny—111090R. Fnukal—1312113
LJun 8 · 10:35R. Pokorny—1186101R. Fnukal—91111123
R. Pokorny10
LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170LAug 31 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.736711101R. Neterda2.0011114123LAug 31 · 19:05R. Pokorny2.0051080R. Vosyka1.731112113
R. Fnukal10
LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal1.411191113112J. Lovl2.60811415133WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl1.91135991R. Fnukal1.80111111113LAug 14 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.6111111010113R. Fnukal2.2074121262LAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
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