TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13059050
Played Sep 1Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.69
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114116––––
Radim Pokorny
Away
1.97
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radim Pokorny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Matej Holub at 57.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 12–10 Radim Pokorny Radim Pokorny has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:33What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Holub
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1669 vs Pokorny 1584
Holub
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Pokorny 40%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 80% vs Pokorny 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Pokorny -1
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pokorny form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.69 / Pokorny 1.97
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Holub)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13059050
Holub1.69
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 39 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Pokorny1.97
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayPokorny3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%4 of 4
AwayPokorny50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Pokorny6n = 10Pokorny took 6 of 10
S2Holub6Pokorny4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub5Pokorny5n = 10split evenly
S4Holub6Pokorny1n = 7Holub took 6 of 7
S5Holub3Pokorny1n = 4Holub took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubPokornyH − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.5+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubPokornyBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 195 vs 146 / 29357.4%49.8%112 / 195 vs 146 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.69/Pokorny 1.97
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub—1112113R. Pokorny—61030
LAug 10 · 13:33M. Holub—6910R. Pokorny—1111113
WAug 10 · 11:05M. Holub—119911113R. Pokorny—21111472
LJul 27 · 17:33M. Holub—271571R. Pokorny—111113113
WJul 27 · 15:05M. Holub—611811113R. Pokorny—11911882
WJul 20 · 13:13M. Holub—11117143R. Pokorny—7711121
LJul 20 · 12:35M. Holub—161331192R. Pokorny—1811119113
WJul 19 · 10:35M. Holub—111812113R. Pokorny—13161061
WJul 18 · 08:05M. Holub—1111113R. Pokorny—9640
WJul 13 · 12:35M. Holub—881111113R. Pokorny—11115892
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub1.8361111153R. Fitl1.831189131
R. Pokorny10
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170LAug 31 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.736711101R. Neterda2.0011114123LAug 31 · 19:05R. Pokorny2.0051080R. Vosyka1.731112113
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