TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13056012
Played Sep 1Finished
Matej Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
51111812101311––
Radek Neterda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 3–10 Radek Neterda Matej Holub has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1648 vs Neterda 1557
Holub
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Neterda 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 80% vs Neterda 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Neterda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neterda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Neterda 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Neterda)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13056012
Holub2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 37 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Neterda1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 54 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayNeterda7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub25%1 of 4
AwayNeterda66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Neterda6n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S2Holub3Neterda7n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S3Holub6Neterda4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub4Neterda5n = 9Neterda took 5 of 9
S5Holub1Neterda2n = 3Neterda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubNeterdaH − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.3−2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 193 vs 191 / 37657%50.8%110 / 193 vs 191 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 2.00/Neterda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 11:35M. Holub—114111172R. Neterda—811139113
LAug 20 · 11:35M. Holub—117661R. Neterda—61111113
WAug 10 · 10:35M. Holub—6111011113R. Neterda—11812752
LJul 27 · 16:05M. Holub—6101161R. Neterda—11128113
LJul 19 · 13:40M. Holub—1191191R. Neterda—13115113
LJul 19 · 11:35M. Holub—5711101R. Neterda—11116123
LJul 18 · 15:35M. Holub—11551182R. Neterda—711119113
WJun 27 · 10:05M. Holub—31111113R. Neterda—119681
LMay 22 · 11:05M. Holub—481151R. Neterda—11114113
WMay 16 · 16:05M. Holub—1111113R. Neterda—5750
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub1.8361111153R. Fitl1.831189131
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113
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