TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13054960
Played Sep 1Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811118115––
Ondrej Pros
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Matej Holub at 76.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 4–0 Ondrej Pros Ondrej Pros has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Holub
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1644 vs Pros 1390
Holub
Correct
both rated, 253 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Pros 0%
Holub
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Pros 20%
Holub
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Pros -5
Pros
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.20 / Pros 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Holub)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13054960
Holub1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 39 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Pros4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 33 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayPros0wins
Holub leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%4 of 4
AwayProsn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Pros0n = 4Holub took 4 of 4
S2Holub4Pros0n = 4Holub took 4 of 4
S3Holub3Pros1n = 4Holub took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolubProsH − PBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match38.829.5+9.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubProsBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 192 vs 109 / 23556.8%46.4%109 / 192 vs 109 / 235Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.20/Pros 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 1 · 15:05M. Holub—1111113O. Pros—9720
WApr 24 · 17:35M. Holub—1113113O. Pros—51190
WApr 24 · 15:05M. Holub—1211133O. Pros—108110
WMar 20 · 17:05M. Holub—111413133O. Pros—81215111
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub1.8361111153R. Fitl1.831189131
O. Pros10
LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143WSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143LSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 3 · 10:35O. Pros2.0011811113M. Chmelicek1.73711871WSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:35O. Pros2.385440L. Vosyka1.531111113LAug 27 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.36991111113O. Pros3.0011118542
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