TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068268
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169119111214––
Ondrej Pros
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:30 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Pros to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 83 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Ondrej Pros at 62.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 2–13 Ondrej Pros Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:30What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-13 in 15
Pros
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1566 vs Pros 1426
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 100% vs Pros 60%
Flesar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 80% vs Pros 30%
Flesar
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +5 · Pros -1
Flesar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Pros)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.63 / Pros 1.44
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Pros)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13068268
Flesar2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 39 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Pros1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayPros8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPros leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar40%2 of 5
AwayPros100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar5Pros5n = 10split evenly
S2Flesar4Pros6n = 10Pros took 6 of 10
S3Flesar5Pros5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar1Pros5n = 6Pros took 5 of 6
S5Flesar0Pros3n = 3Pros took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarProsF − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.936.7−2.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarProsBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 379 vs 112 / 24153.3%46.5%202 / 379 vs 112 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 2.63/Pros 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Pros · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 12:35M. Flesar—18111192O. Pros—111146113
LAug 7 · 15:35M. Flesar—81170O. Pros—1113113
LJun 8 · 17:05M. Flesar—118381O. Pros—81111113
LJun 8 · 16:05M. Flesar—6480O. Pros—1111113
LJun 1 · 16:05M. Flesar—6115101O. Pros—11511123
LMay 15 · 17:05M. Flesar—11911832O. Pros—911811113
LMay 15 · 14:35M. Flesar—6101181O. Pros—11127113
WMay 8 · 10:05M. Flesar—1111113O. Pros—9350
WApr 7 · 11:05M. Flesar—1111113O. Pros—8220
LMar 23 · 18:45M. Flesar—131211772O. Pros—11101311113
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
O. Pros10
LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 3 · 10:35O. Pros2.0011811113M. Chmelicek1.73711871WSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 27 · 17:05D. Hons1.44119117113O. Pros2.6381161162LAug 27 · 16:35O. Pros2.385440L. Vosyka1.531111113LAug 27 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.36991111113O. Pros3.0011118542
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