TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084826
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71112106111214––
Milan Flesar
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 83 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 75.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 3–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1648 vs Flesar 1476
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Flesar 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Flesar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +2 · Flesar -4
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.25 / Flesar 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Ruzicka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13084826
Ruzicka1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 83 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Flesar3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRuzicka3wins
AwayFlesar1wins
Ruzicka leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka75%3 of 4
AwayFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Flesar0n = 4Ruzicka took 4 of 4
S2Ruzicka2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S3Ruzicka3Flesar1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricRuzickaFlesarR − FBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match35.026.2+8.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 414 vs 205 / 38751.9%53%215 / 414 vs 205 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.25/Flesar 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.8%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 13 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Flesar—8660
LAug 13 · 13:03J. Ruzicka—1187101M. Flesar—81111123
WAug 13 · 10:05J. Ruzicka—11511113M. Flesar—711431
WApr 3 · 18:05J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Flesar—5670
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
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