TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084463
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116117––––
Jirasek Martin
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 64.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 6–3 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1650 vs Martin 1504
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 40% vs Martin 60%
Martin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Martin 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -2 · Martin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.53 / Martin 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ruzicka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13084463
Ruzicka1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it84% 68 of 81
Martin2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 16 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRuzicka6wins
AwayMartin3wins
Ruzicka leads 6–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%4 of 4
AwayMartin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Martin5n = 9Martin took 5 of 9
S2Ruzicka5Martin4n = 9Ruzicka took 5 of 9
S3Ruzicka6Martin3n = 9Ruzicka took 6 of 9
S4Ruzicka3Martin0n = 3Ruzicka took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricRuzickaMartinR − MBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match31.930.6+1.3per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 416 vs 30 / 6151.9%49.2%216 / 416 vs 30 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.53/Martin 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka—1211113J. Martin—10670
WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka—91411113J. Martin—1112541
LAug 16 · 17:34J. Ruzicka—5660J. Martin—1111113
WAug 16 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—12512113J. Martin—10111091
WAug 8 · 13:33J. Ruzicka—1111113J. Martin—5790
LAug 8 · 12:05J. Ruzicka—7890J. Martin—1111113
WAug 8 · 09:35J. Ruzicka—71111123J. Martin—1189101
LAug 8 · 08:05J. Ruzicka—41060J. Martin—1112113
WAug 4 · 19:05J. Ruzicka—1111113J. Martin—7590
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541
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