TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082022
Played Sep 5Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141113119411115
Jirasek Martin
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Radek Fitl at 58.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 3–2 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1549 vs Martin 1456
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 40% vs Martin 20%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Martin 30%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl -3 · Martin +1
Fitl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.57 / Martin 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Fitl)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13082022
Fitl1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Martin2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFitl3wins
AwayMartin2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderFitl leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl66.7%2 of 3
AwayMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl3Martin2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S2Fitl3Martin2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S3Fitl3Martin2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S4Fitl2Martin2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricFitlMartinF − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.838.4+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 331 vs 26 / 5351.4%49.1%170 / 331 vs 26 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.57/Martin 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 24 · 14:35R. Fitl—1110101432J. Martin—2121212113
WAug 24 · 13:13R. Fitl—111111113J. Martin—813561
WAug 24 · 11:35R. Fitl—11151110113J. Martin—131371252
WAug 4 · 21:43R. Fitl—1111113J. Martin—9660
LAug 4 · 18:35R. Fitl—911881J. Martin—11711113
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113
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