TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076645
Played Sep 4Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11814121715––––
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 17-15
Point 77 set 3, 17-15 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 2–1 Jan Manhal Jr Jan Manhal Jr has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1547 vs Jr 1466
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 80% vs Jr 20%
Fitl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 60% vs Jr 30%
Fitl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +2 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.80 / Jr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fitl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13076645
Fitl1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 73 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Jr1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 5 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFitl2wins
AwayJr1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFitl leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl2Jr1n = 3Fitl took 2 of 3
S2Fitl1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S3Fitl2Jr1n = 3Fitl took 2 of 3
S4Fitl1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricFitlJrF − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match42.337.0+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlJrBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 327 vs 13 / 3051.7%43.3%169 / 327 vs 13 / 30Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.80/Jr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 24 · 17:18R. Fitl—118119113J. Jr—61161182
LAug 24 · 15:35R. Fitl—8111061J. Jr—11212113
WAug 6 · 14:35R. Fitl—11911113J. Jr—611971
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
J. Jr10
WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113LAug 24 · 16:35J. Martin1.57111114153J. Jr2.256916131WAug 24 · 15:35J. Jr1.9111212113R. Fitl1.808111061LAug 24 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50911511113J. Jr2.5011711682LAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113WAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690LAug 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.831111113J. Jr1.837570
Upcoming Matches
R. Fitl
J. Jr
Nothing scheduled
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