TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001877
Played Aug 24Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1182111210116––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Radek Fitl at 61.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 0–1 Radek Fitl Jan Manhal Jr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fitl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1476 vs Fitl 1523
Fitl
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Fitl 40%
Fitl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Fitl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Fitl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Fitl) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.91 / Fitl 1.80
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Fitl)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #13001877
Jr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 4 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Fitl1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 65 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJr0wins
AwayFitl1wins
Fitl leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJrFitlJ − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match33.042.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime12 / 27 vs 155 / 30044.4%51.7%12 / 27 vs 155 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlJr 1.91/Fitl 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 6 · 14:35J. Jr—611971R. Fitl—11911113
J. Jr10
WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113LAug 24 · 16:35J. Martin1.57111114153J. Jr2.256916131LAug 24 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50911511113J. Jr2.5011711682LAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113WAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690LAug 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.831111113J. Jr1.837570
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113
Upcoming Matches
J. Jr
Nothing scheduled
R. Fitl
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