TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13001875
Played Aug 24Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11611914161513––
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 95 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 2–0 Jan Manhal Jr Jan Manhal Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:22What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martin 1510 vs Jr 1495
Martin
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 30% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin +2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.57 / Jr 2.25
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Martin)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #13001875
Martin1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 10 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Jr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 4 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartin2wins
AwayJr0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMartin leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMartinJrM − JBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.535.5+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinJrBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 43 vs 13 / 2853.5%46.4%23 / 43 vs 13 / 28Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.57/Jr 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 19 · 17:50J. Martin—1111113J. Jr—9890
WAug 19 · 15:35J. Martin—881211113J. Jr—111110582
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681
J. Jr10
WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113WAug 24 · 15:35J. Jr1.9111212113R. Fitl1.808111061LAug 24 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50911511113J. Jr2.5011711682LAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113WAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690LAug 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.831111113J. Jr1.837570
Upcoming Matches
J. Martin
J. Jr
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