TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086689
Played Sep 6Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181614––––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 68 set 3, 16-14 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 59.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 3–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Martin
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1504 vs Flesar 1451
Martin
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 60% vs Flesar 20%
Martin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 40% vs Flesar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -1 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.67 / Flesar 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Martin)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13086689
Martin1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 11 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it64% 7 of 11
Flesar2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMartin3wins
AwayFlesar1wins
Martin leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartin75%3 of 4
AwayFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin4Flesar0n = 4Martin took 4 of 4
S2Martin2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S3Martin3Flesar1n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMartinFlesarM − FBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match34.830.0+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 61 vs 206 / 38949.2%53%30 / 61 vs 206 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.67/Flesar 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin—1111163M. Flesar—88140
WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin—1111113M. Flesar—7640
WAug 3 · 17:50J. Martin—11311113M. Flesar—511691
LAug 3 · 14:05J. Martin—119391M. Flesar—91111113
J. Martin10
LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113
M. Flesar10
WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
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