TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068176
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118119114––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 27–11 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 11 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-11 in 38
Flesar
Correct
gap of 16 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1557 vs Chmelicek 1486
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 100% vs Chmelicek 80%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Chmelicek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +5 · Chmelicek -1
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.83 / Chmelicek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13068176
Flesar1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Chmelicek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar5wins
AwayChmelicek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%4 of 6
AwayChmelicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar6Chmelicek4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Flesar4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Flesar6Chmelicek4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Flesar3Chmelicek4n = 7Chmelicek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarChmelicekF − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.533.7+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 378 vs 214 / 44953.2%47.7%201 / 378 vs 214 / 449Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.83/Chmelicek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 21:33M. Flesar—741191M. Chmelicek—11116113
WAug 28 · 20:05M. Flesar—413113113M. Chmelicek—111121132
LAug 23 · 20:35M. Flesar—113831M. Chmelicek—5111173
LJul 23 · 20:05M. Flesar—1376121M. Chmelicek—111111143
WJul 22 · 20:05M. Flesar—1111113M. Chmelicek—4640
WJul 21 · 21:33M. Flesar—11119113M. Chmelicek—891151
WJul 21 · 20:05M. Flesar—11612113M. Chmelicek—8111071
WJul 18 · 11:35M. Flesar—1111113M. Chmelicek—3660
LJul 17 · 20:05M. Flesar—8740M. Chmelicek—1111113
LJul 1 · 10:35M. Flesar—210111182M. Chmelicek—111295113
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.