TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084444
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11812101012911117
Radim Jaros
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radim Jaros below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 84.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 19–3 Radim Jaros Radim Jaros has won 3 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-3 in 22
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 16 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1382 vs Jaros 1117
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 265 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Jaros 20%
Chmelicek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Jaros 10%
Chmelicek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +1 · Jaros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.20 / Jaros 4.33
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Chmelicek)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13084444
Chmelicek1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 64 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it67% 51 of 76
Jaros4.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 20 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek9wins
AwayJaros1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek100%8 of 8
AwayJarosn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek8Jaros2n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S2Chmelicek9Jaros1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S3Chmelicek8Jaros2n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekJarosC − JBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.224.8+9.4per matchSweeps71+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekJarosBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 460 vs 94 / 24947.6%37.8%219 / 460 vs 94 / 249Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.534.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.20/Jaros 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek—16115113R. Jaros—1481131
WSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—2750
WSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790
WSep 4 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—7680
WAug 30 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8960
WAug 29 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8790
WAug 22 · 10:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—1580
WAug 21 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—1112113R. Jaros—71060
LAug 16 · 13:09M. Chmelicek—91040R. Jaros—1112113
WAug 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek—311118113R. Jaros—11261192
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771LSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113
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