TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081745
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1198111113911––
Radek Hruby
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radek Hruby below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 76.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 10–1 Radek Hruby Radek Hruby has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1460 vs Hruby 1256
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Hruby 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Hruby 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +2 · Hruby +3
Hruby
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hruby form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.30 / Hruby 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Chmelicek)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13081745
Chmelicek1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 62 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it67% 49 of 73
Hruby3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek9wins
AwayHruby1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek100%6 of 6
AwayHruby25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Hruby4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek9Hruby1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S3Chmelicek5Hruby5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmelicek5Hruby3n = 8Chmelicek took 5 of 8
S5Chmelicek3Hruby0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHrubyC − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.434.4+7.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHrubyBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 457 vs 50 / 13247.7%37.9%218 / 457 vs 50 / 132Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.30/Hruby 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hruby won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—11119113R. Hruby—791171
WJul 25 · 17:05M. Chmelicek—1211113R. Hruby—10630
WJul 25 · 15:35M. Chmelicek—1011311113R. Hruby—12711852
WMay 1 · 21:10M. Chmelicek—159119113R. Hruby—131191182
WMay 1 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—11119113R. Hruby—761171
WMar 22 · 17:05M. Chmelicek—61111113R. Hruby—118951
WFeb 21 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Hruby—8380
WFeb 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek—11117113R. Hruby—931161
LJan 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—911891R. Hruby—11811113
WDec 25 · 21:35M. Chmelicek—1111112113R. Hruby—13871142
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113LAug 28 · 19:35R. Hruby2.75491291M. Chmelicek1.40111110113
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