TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13038217
Played Aug 28Finished
Radek Hruby
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Tomas Motacek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–5Last 7Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:00 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Hruby to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Hruby above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Radek Hruby at 61.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Radek Hruby 1–1 Tomas Motacek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hruby
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hruby 1231 vs Motacek 1303
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hruby 60% vs Motacek 20%
Hruby
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hruby 50% vs Motacek 29%
Hruby
Wrong
21pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hruby +1 · Motacek -4
Motacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hruby) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHruby 1.53 / Motacek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Hruby)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13038217
Hruby1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite35% won 6 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Motacek2.38
29%won 2 of 7 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest43%takes the first set · 3 of 7
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHruby1wins
AwayMotacek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricHrubyMotacekH − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match28.029.5−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrubyMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 127 vs 3 / 837%37.5%47 / 127 vs 3 / 8Avg sets wonper match1.81.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.131.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrubyHruby 1.53/Motacek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Hruby · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby—8770T. Motacek—1111113
WAug 28 · 20:35R. Hruby—1112113T. Motacek—91070
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113LAug 28 · 19:35R. Hruby2.75491291M. Chmelicek1.40111110113
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113LAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113
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