TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034799
Played Aug 28Finished
Radek Hruby
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4119111210911––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Hruby above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 70.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Radek Hruby 1–10 Martin Chmelicek Radek Hruby has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hruby 1245 vs Chmelicek 1457
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hruby 40% vs Chmelicek 60%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hruby 50% vs Chmelicek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hruby -1 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHruby 2.75 / Chmelicek 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Chmelicek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13034799
Hruby2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 15 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back35% 7 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Chmelicek1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 55 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it66% 43 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHruby1wins
AwayChmelicek9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHruby25%1 of 4
AwayChmelicek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hruby4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Hruby1Chmelicek9n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S3Hruby5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Hruby3Chmelicek5n = 8Chmelicek took 5 of 8
S5Hruby0Chmelicek3n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrubyChmelicekH − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.441.4−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrubyChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 126 vs 206 / 43937.3%46.9%47 / 126 vs 206 / 439Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekHruby 2.75/Chmelicek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 18:05R. Hruby—791171M. Chmelicek—11119113
LJul 25 · 17:05R. Hruby—10630M. Chmelicek—1211113
LJul 25 · 15:35R. Hruby—12711852M. Chmelicek—1011311113
LMay 1 · 21:10R. Hruby—131191182M. Chmelicek—159119113
LMay 1 · 20:35R. Hruby—761171M. Chmelicek—11119113
LMar 22 · 17:05R. Hruby—118951M. Chmelicek—61111113
LFeb 21 · 19:05R. Hruby—8380M. Chmelicek—1111113
LFeb 8 · 15:05R. Hruby—931161M. Chmelicek—11117113
WJan 3 · 20:05R. Hruby—11811113M. Chmelicek—911891
LDec 25 · 21:35R. Hruby—13871142M. Chmelicek—1111112113
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881
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