TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046316
Played Aug 30Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118411118118––
Radek Hruby
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:19 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radek Hruby below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 72.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 10–1 Radek Hruby Radek Hruby has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1501 vs Hruby 1241
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Hruby 20%
Chmelicek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 80% vs Hruby 40%
Chmelicek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +2 · Hruby -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hruby form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.33 / Hruby 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Chmelicek)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13046316
Chmelicek1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 59 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it67% 46 of 69
Hruby3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 16 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek9wins
AwayHruby1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek100%6 of 6
AwayHruby25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Hruby4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek9Hruby1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S3Chmelicek5Hruby5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmelicek5Hruby3n = 8Chmelicek took 5 of 8
S5Chmelicek3Hruby0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHrubyC − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.434.4+7.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHrubyBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 448 vs 49 / 13147.8%37.4%214 / 448 vs 49 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.33/Hruby 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—11119113R. Hruby—791171
WJul 25 · 17:05M. Chmelicek—1211113R. Hruby—10630
WJul 25 · 15:35M. Chmelicek—1011311113R. Hruby—12711852
WMay 1 · 21:10M. Chmelicek—159119113R. Hruby—131191182
WMay 1 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—11119113R. Hruby—761171
WMar 22 · 17:05M. Chmelicek—61111113R. Hruby—118951
WFeb 21 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Hruby—8380
WFeb 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek—11117113R. Hruby—931161
LJan 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—911891R. Hruby—11811113
WDec 25 · 21:35M. Chmelicek—1111112113R. Hruby—13871142
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113LAug 28 · 19:35R. Hruby2.75491291M. Chmelicek1.40111110113
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