TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086723
Played Sep 6Finished
Matyas Rojka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6114111181315––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Rojka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 79 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Rojka 7–10 Martin Chmelicek Matyas Rojka has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rojka 1343 vs Chmelicek 1312
Rojka
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rojka 40% vs Chmelicek 20%
Rojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rojka 30% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rojka -2 · Chmelicek -4
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRojka 1.91 / Chmelicek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmelicek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13086723
Rojka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 17 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Chmelicek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 64 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it67% 51 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRojka4wins
AwayChmelicek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRojka50%2 of 4
AwayChmelicek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rojka4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Rojka4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Rojka5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Rojka6Chmelicek1n = 7Rojka took 6 of 7
S5Rojka1Chmelicek4n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRojkaChmelicekR − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.8+0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRojkaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 191 vs 220 / 46547.6%47.3%91 / 191 vs 220 / 465Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekRojka 1.91/Chmelicek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 20:05M. Rojka—5101112113M. Chmelicek—111281072
LJun 26 · 13:05M. Rojka—11116992M. Chmelicek—991111113
WJun 26 · 10:35M. Rojka—1111113M. Chmelicek—6910
WJun 26 · 08:35M. Rojka—101212113M. Chmelicek—12101061
LJun 17 · 18:35M. Rojka—71191192M. Chmelicek—118115113
WJun 15 · 19:35M. Rojka—111111123M. Chmelicek—3139101
LJun 11 · 21:50M. Rojka—121160M. Chmelicek—1413113
LJun 11 · 19:35M. Rojka—571111102M. Chmelicek—111167123
LJun 3 · 21:05M. Rojka—118811112M. Chmelicek—311118133
LJun 3 · 20:35M. Rojka—6520M. Chmelicek—1111113
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.