TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086731
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117116118––
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 6–6 Matyas Rojka Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1406 vs Rojka 1318
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 20% vs Rojka 40%
Rojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 30% vs Rojka 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka -1 · Rojka -3
Rojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 2.00 / Rojka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rojka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13086731
Kabelka2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 50 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Rojka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 26 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka5wins
AwayRojka5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka60%3 of 5
AwayRojka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka5Rojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Kabelka7Rojka3n = 10Kabelka took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka5Rojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Kabelka2Rojka5n = 7Rojka took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaRojkaK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.4−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 266 vs 91 / 19247.7%47.4%127 / 266 vs 91 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RojkaKabelka 2.00/Rojka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka—11211632M. Rojka—611311113
LJun 11 · 18:05J. Kabelka—106100M. Rojka—1211123
WJun 2 · 21:45J. Kabelka—11117113M. Rojka—781191
LJun 2 · 19:05J. Kabelka—911491M. Rojka—11411113
WMay 28 · 19:35J. Kabelka—1112113M. Rojka—91060
WMay 22 · 20:05J. Kabelka—411136153M. Rojka—1181111132
LMay 21 · 20:35J. Kabelka—1019471M. Rojka—121711113
WMar 12 · 21:05J. Kabelka—131111113M. Rojka—158931
WMar 5 · 22:40J. Kabelka—1211113M. Rojka—10750
LMar 5 · 19:35J. Kabelka—117761M. Rojka—51111113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113WSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113WSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113
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