TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076519
Played Sep 4Finished
Matyas Rojka
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189111187111113
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Rojka above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 100 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 57.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Rojka 4–1 Miroslav Cyrus Miroslav Cyrus has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Rojka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rojka 1345 vs Cyrus 1292
Rojka
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rojka 20% vs Cyrus 40%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rojka 20% vs Cyrus 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rojka -3 · Cyrus -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rojka) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRojka 1.50 / Cyrus 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Rojka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13076519
Rojka1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Cyrus2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRojka4wins
AwayCyrus1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderRojka leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRojka66.7%2 of 3
AwayCyrusn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rojka3Cyrus2n = 5Rojka took 3 of 5
S2Rojka5Cyrus0n = 5Rojka took 5 of 5
S3Rojka4Cyrus1n = 5Rojka took 4 of 5
S4Rojka1Cyrus2n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRojkaCyrusR − CBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.631.4+10.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRojkaCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 186 vs 80 / 18047.9%44.4%89 / 186 vs 80 / 180Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RojkaRojka 1.50/Cyrus 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Rojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 25 · 18:05M. Rojka—811116113M. Cyrus—11451192
WJun 21 · 10:35M. Rojka—1111113M. Cyrus—6780
WJun 10 · 20:35M. Rojka—1212113M. Cyrus—101050
WFeb 19 · 22:45M. Rojka—91111113M. Cyrus—112441
LFeb 19 · 20:05M. Rojka—1111108112M. Cyrus—681211133
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6397111142M. Cyrus1.44111194113
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