TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063508
Played Sep 2Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111711611––––
Milan Flesar
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 63.3%
47 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 4–11 Milan Flesar Miroslav Cyrus has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Flesar
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrus 1326 vs Flesar 1496
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrus 60% vs Flesar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrus 50% vs Flesar 70%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrus +2 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 2.25 / Flesar 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Flesar)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13063508
Cyrus2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 14 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back11% 3 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Flesar1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 69 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCyrus3wins
AwayFlesar7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrus75%3 of 4
AwayFlesar100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Cyrus2Flesar8n = 10Flesar took 8 of 10
S3Cyrus4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Cyrus1Flesar5n = 6Flesar took 5 of 6
S5Cyrus2Flesar1n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCyrusFlesarC − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.739.0−7.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 177 vs 197 / 37445.2%52.7%80 / 177 vs 197 / 374Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarCyrus 2.25/Flesar 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 18:05M. Cyrus—61212642M. Flesar—11101011113
LJul 22 · 21:55M. Cyrus—119951M. Flesar—91111113
WJul 22 · 18:35M. Cyrus—111166113M. Flesar—85111162
LJun 25 · 21:10M. Cyrus—6990M. Flesar—1111113
WJun 25 · 20:35M. Cyrus—11511113M. Flesar—711831
LJun 24 · 20:35M. Cyrus—45100M. Flesar—1111123
LMay 26 · 14:35M. Cyrus—751141M. Flesar—11119113
LApr 30 · 16:35M. Cyrus—9680M. Flesar—1111113
WApr 17 · 19:35M. Cyrus—1171111113M. Flesar—91191382
LApr 2 · 18:05M. Cyrus—1780M. Flesar—1111113
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6397111142M. Cyrus1.44111194113
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143
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