TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477865
Played Aug 23Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911711119114411
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-10
Point 87 set 5, 4-10 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 68.5%
87 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radim Jaros 1–5 Miroslav Cyrus Radim Jaros has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cyrus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Cyrus
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1256 vs Cyrus 1296
Cyrus
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 40% vs Cyrus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 40% vs Cyrus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros +2 · Cyrus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cyrus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 2.63 / Cyrus 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Cyrus)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12477865
Jaros2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Cyrus1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite40% won 8 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it62% 8 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeJaros1wins
AwayCyrus5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderCyrus leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarosn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCyrus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jaros2Cyrus4n = 6Cyrus took 4 of 6
S2Jaros3Cyrus3n = 6split evenly
S3Jaros2Cyrus4n = 6Cyrus took 4 of 6
S4Jaros1Cyrus3n = 4Cyrus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricJarosCyrusJ − CBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.241.2−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 229 vs 77 / 17239.7%44.8%91 / 229 vs 77 / 172Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrusJaros 2.63/Cyrus 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Cyrus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 22 · 11:35R. Jaros—14730M. Cyrus—1611113
LAug 16 · 12:35R. Jaros—10740M. Cyrus—1211113
WAug 5 · 19:35R. Jaros—91111113M. Cyrus—119671
LJan 2 · 14:15R. Jaros—13611992M. Cyrus—1111811113
LJan 2 · 11:05R. Jaros—13116101M. Cyrus—15411123
LDec 21 · 17:05R. Jaros—11114882M. Cyrus—871111113
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821
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