TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085114
Played Sep 6Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11881111131214––
Petr Pesout
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:39 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 88 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Petr Pesout at 68.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Radim Jaros 4–13 Petr Pesout Radim Jaros has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Pesout
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1113 vs Pesout 1363
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 20% vs Pesout 60%
Pesout
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 10% vs Pesout 50%
Pesout
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros -2 · Pesout +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jaros form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 2.63 / Pesout 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Pesout)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13085114
Jaros2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 20 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Pesout1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJaros1wins
AwayPesout9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJaros33.3%1 of 3
AwayPesout100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jaros3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10
S2Jaros0Pesout10n = 10Pesout took 10 of 10
S3Jaros1Pesout9n = 10Pesout took 9 of 10
S4Jaros2Pesout2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarosPesoutJ − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.740.6−9.9per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 250 vs 148 / 32037.6%46.3%94 / 250 vs 148 / 320Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutJaros 2.63/Pesout 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros—101150P. Pesout—1213113
WAug 29 · 17:04R. Jaros—1412411113P. Pesout—121411872
LAug 29 · 15:05R. Jaros—9880P. Pesout—1111113
LJun 14 · 08:35R. Jaros—53110P. Pesout—1111133
LMay 24 · 17:45R. Jaros—741251P. Pesout—111110113
LMay 24 · 14:05R. Jaros—95120P. Pesout—1111143
LMay 7 · 14:05R. Jaros—52120P. Pesout—1111143
LMay 3 · 14:05R. Jaros—11111091P. Pesout—91312113
LMar 28 · 12:05R. Jaros—131071252P. Pesout—11121110113
LMar 26 · 15:05R. Jaros—11580P. Pesout—1311113
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771LSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182WAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros2.38101150P. Pesout1.531213113
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