TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063126
Played Sep 2Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711117211115116
Petr Pesout
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 82 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Milan Flesar at 62.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 14–4 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Flesar
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1490 vs Pesout 1333
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Pesout 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Pesout 50%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Pesout -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.44 / Pesout 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Flesar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13063126
Flesar1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 69 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Pesout2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 37 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar7wins
AwayPesout3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar83.3%5 of 6
AwayPesout50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar6Pesout4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Flesar6Pesout4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S3Flesar8Pesout2n = 10Flesar took 8 of 10
S4Flesar3Pesout3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarPesoutF − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.729.8+7.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 373 vs 145 / 31552.6%46%196 / 373 vs 145 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.44/Pesout 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 14:35M. Flesar—116591P. Pesout—81111113
WJul 18 · 10:35M. Flesar—1111113P. Pesout—3840
WJul 18 · 08:35M. Flesar—81111113P. Pesout—115871
LJun 8 · 14:05M. Flesar—11690P. Pesout—1311113
WJun 1 · 14:05M. Flesar—117117123P. Pesout—311811102
WMay 26 · 15:35M. Flesar—1111113P. Pesout—5710
LMay 15 · 15:35M. Flesar—101111672P. Pesout—126411113
WMay 8 · 11:05M. Flesar—12811113P. Pesout—1011391
WApr 8 · 17:40M. Flesar—121111113P. Pesout—145271
WApr 8 · 16:05M. Flesar—1111113P. Pesout—6270
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182WAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros2.38101150P. Pesout1.531213113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.