TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085149
Played Sep 6Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191210411711119
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 55.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 0–1 Tomas Motacek Petr Pesout has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1350 vs Motacek 1393
Motacek
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 40% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 50% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -1 · Motacek +3
Motacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.83 / Motacek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Motacek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13085149
Pesout1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Motacek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePesout0wins
AwayMotacek1wins
Motacek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPesoutMotacekP − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match28.042.0−14.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 319 vs 8 / 1646.1%50%147 / 319 vs 8 / 16Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekPesout 1.83/Motacek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 29 · 14:05P. Pesout—611651T. Motacek—11911113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182WAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros2.38101150P. Pesout1.531213113
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
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