Martin Chmelicek vs Petr Pesout 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13048290

Played Aug 30Finished

Martin Chmelicek

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

811115611118115

Petr Pesout

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Petr Pesout below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-5

Point 87 set 5, 11-5

87 points played in total.

H2H Martin Chmelicek 9–9 Petr Pesout Dead even across their 18 meetings.

Last 10 · 2–8Head to head

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pesout)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Pesout form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChmelicek 2.10 / Pesout 1.67

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Chmelicek)+1.8pp

TT Cup · #13048290

Chmelicek2.10

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog39% won 57 of 146

Down 0–1, comes back13% 10 of 76

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49

Pesout1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite54% won 20 of 37

Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeChmelicek2wins

AwayPesout8wins

3 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChmelicek66.7%2 of 3

AwayPesout100%7 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chmelicek3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10

S2Chmelicek4Pesout6n = 10Pesout took 6 of 10

S3Chmelicek3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10

S4Chmelicek1Pesout7n = 8Pesout took 7 of 8

S5Chmelicek2Pesout1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricChmelicekPesoutC − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.941.0−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChmelicekPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 447 vs 145 / 31447.7%46.2%213 / 447 vs 145 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Chmelicek

Chmelicek 2.10/Pesout 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Pesout · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Chmelicek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—121188113P. Pesout—103111182

LAug 29 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—914791P. Pesout—111211113

LJul 19 · 09:34M. Chmelicek—791181P. Pesout—11117113

LJul 19 · 06:35M. Chmelicek—9780P. Pesout—1111113

LJul 18 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—1011861P. Pesout—12911113

LJul 18 · 12:35M. Chmelicek—6990P. Pesout—1111113

LJun 14 · 09:35M. Chmelicek—11511111P. Pesout—41113133

LJun 14 · 06:35M. Chmelicek—68111152P. Pesout—111178113

WJun 7 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—111165113P. Pesout—58111182

LMay 2 · 17:10M. Chmelicek—581151P. Pesout—11118113

M. Chmelicek10

LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840 WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113 WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153 LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133 LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143 LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113 LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113 WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172 WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131 LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123

P. Pesout10

LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113 WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113 WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143 WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192 LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480 WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230 WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113 LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562 LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182 WAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros2.38101150P. Pesout1.531213113

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