TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086872
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111154111113––
Jan Kabelka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 73 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 59.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 21–20 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kabelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1332 vs Kabelka 1398
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Kabelka 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 40% vs Kabelka 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -3 · Kabelka -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.83 / Kabelka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13086872
Chmelicek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kabelka1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayKabelka7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKabelka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%3 of 6
AwayKabelka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Kabelka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek6Kabelka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Chmelicek2Kabelka8n = 10Kabelka took 8 of 10
S4Chmelicek3Kabelka5n = 8Kabelka took 5 of 8
S5Chmelicek1Kabelka3n = 4Kabelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekKabelkaC − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.1−3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 464 vs 126 / 26447.4%47.7%220 / 464 vs 126 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.83/Kabelka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—111184123J. Kabelka—891111102
LAug 13 · 21:05M. Chmelicek—84111152J. Kabelka—111187113
LAug 13 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—69110J. Kabelka—1111133
LAug 12 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—151110642J. Kabelka—1391211113
WAug 10 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—11119113J. Kabelka—681181
LAug 3 · 21:45M. Chmelicek—7111111122J. Kabelka—116135143
WAug 3 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—1111113J. Kabelka—6880
LJul 30 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—611881J. Kabelka—11611113
LJul 29 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—127941J. Kabelka—101111113
LJul 27 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—117761J. Kabelka—41111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.8011211632M. Rojka1.91611311113LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113WSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133
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