Martin Chmelicek vs Radim Jaros 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13087534

Played Sep 6Finished

Martin Chmelicek

Home

1.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

11611991161124

Radim Jaros

Away

3.75

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 4

How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radim Jaros below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 2-4

Point 80 set 5, 2-4

80 points played in total.

H2H Martin Chmelicek 20–3 Radim Jaros Radim Jaros has won 3 of their 23 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Chmelicek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChmelicek 1.25 / Jaros 3.75

Signal prob.81% / 19%

Edge (Chmelicek)+6.3pp

TT Cup · #13087534

Chmelicek1.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite52% won 64 of 123

Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42

Up 1–0, closes it67% 51 of 76

Jaros3.75

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog27% won 20 of 74

Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeChmelicek9wins

AwayJaros1wins

1 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChmelicek100%9 of 9

AwayJarosn = 1, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chmelicek9Jaros1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10

S2Chmelicek9Jaros1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10

S3Chmelicek7Jaros3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home770%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricChmelicekJarosC − JBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.125.7+9.4per matchSweeps71+63–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChmelicekJarosBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 463 vs 94 / 25247.5%37.3%220 / 463 vs 94 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.534.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Chmelicek

Chmelicek 1.25/Jaros 3.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

81.3%

Chmelicek · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Jaros won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek—1112109113R. Jaros—810121172

WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek—16115113R. Jaros—1481131

WSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—2750

WSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790

WSep 4 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—7680

WAug 30 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8960

WAug 29 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8790

WAug 22 · 10:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—1580

WAug 21 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—1112113R. Jaros—71060

LAug 16 · 13:09M. Chmelicek—91040R. Jaros—1112113

M. Chmelicek10

LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840 WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113 WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153 LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133 LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113 LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113 WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172 WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131 LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123 LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113

R. Jaros10

LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101 LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143 LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172 LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131 WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113 LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113 LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750 LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790 LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771 LSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113

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