TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085255
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711911––––
Tomas Motacek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:28 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 56.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 3–3 Tomas Motacek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:28What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1371 vs Motacek 1396
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +2 · Motacek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.67 / Motacek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13085255
Chmelicek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 64 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it67% 51 of 76
Motacek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayMotacek3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMotacek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek2Motacek4n = 6Motacek took 4 of 6
S2Chmelicek2Motacek4n = 6Motacek took 4 of 6
S3Chmelicek3Motacek3n = 6split evenly
S4Chmelicek3Motacek0n = 3Chmelicek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricChmelicekMotacekC − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.736.5+0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 462 vs 9 / 1847.6%50%220 / 462 vs 9 / 18Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.67/Motacek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek—6790T. Motacek—1111113
LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—591111102T. Motacek—111196123
WAug 29 · 17:35M. Chmelicek—711911113T. Motacek—11511492
WAug 29 · 15:35M. Chmelicek—11911173T. Motacek—8118151
WAug 28 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—1111123T. Motacek—39100
LAug 27 · 20:33M. Chmelicek—6960T. Motacek—1111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
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