TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041085
Played Aug 29Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111811511––––
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-9
Point 44 set 3, 4-9 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 54.0%
44 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1201 vs Motacek 1350
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 20% vs Motacek 40%
Motacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 30% vs Motacek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros -3 · Motacek -1
Jaros
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Motacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 1.91 / Motacek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Motacek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13041085
Jaros1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 20 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Motacek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 235 vs 4 / 1039.2%40%92 / 235 vs 4 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match34.533.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekJaros 1.91/Motacek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motacek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
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