TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041084
Played Aug 29Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–5Last 9Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111198111517––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 15-17
Point 90 set 4, 15-17 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 55.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–3 Martin Chmelicek Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1319 vs Chmelicek 1462
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 40% vs Chmelicek 80%
Chmelicek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 44% vs Chmelicek 60%
Chmelicek
Correct
16pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +2 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 2.00 / Chmelicek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13041084
Motacek2.00
44%won 4 of 9 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Chmelicek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 56 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it66% 44 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChmelicek leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S2Motacek2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S3Motacek2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMotacekChmelicekM − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.238.0−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 12 vs 210 / 44441.7%47.3%5 / 12 vs 210 / 444Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekMotacek 2.00/Chmelicek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek—11511492M. Chmelicek—711911113
LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek—8118151M. Chmelicek—11911173
LAug 28 · 18:35T. Motacek—39100M. Chmelicek—1111123
WAug 27 · 20:33T. Motacek—1111113M. Chmelicek—6960
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113
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