TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081996
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5119111191161012
Tomas Motacek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 95 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 60.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 3–1 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1377 vs Motacek 1325
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Motacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 40% vs Motacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -1 · Motacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.53 / Motacek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13081996
Chmelicek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 62 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it67% 49 of 73
Motacek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayMotacek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChmelicek leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
S2Chmelicek2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
S3Chmelicek2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricChmelicekMotacekC − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.034.2+3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 458 vs 6 / 1447.6%42.9%218 / 458 vs 6 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.534.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.53/Motacek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 29 · 17:35M. Chmelicek—711911113T. Motacek—11511492
WAug 29 · 15:35M. Chmelicek—11911173T. Motacek—8118151
WAug 28 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—1111123T. Motacek—39100
LAug 27 · 20:33M. Chmelicek—6960T. Motacek—1111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
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