TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13083697
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1614118511113––
Radim Jaros
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Radim Jaros below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 79 set 4, 11-3
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 18–3 Radim Jaros Radim Jaros has won 3 of their 21 meetings.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.17 / Jaros 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Chmelicek)+6.2pp
TT Cup · #13083697
Chmelicek1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 62 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it67% 49 of 73
Jaros4.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog28% won 20 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek8wins
AwayJaros2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek100%7 of 7
AwayJaros66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek7Jaros3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek9Jaros1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S3Chmelicek8Jaros1n = 9Chmelicek took 8 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekJarosC − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.525.3+8.2per matchSweeps71+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekJarosBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 459 vs 94 / 24847.5%37.9%218 / 459 vs 94 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.534.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.17/Jaros 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—11103R. Jaros—270
WSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790
WSep 4 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—7680
WAug 30 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8960
WAug 29 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—8790
WAug 22 · 10:05M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—1580
WAug 21 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—1112113R. Jaros—71060
LAug 16 · 13:09M. Chmelicek—91040R. Jaros—1112113
WAug 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek—311118113R. Jaros—11261192
LAug 14 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—711111092R. Jaros—113912113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771LSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113
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