TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085193
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161188111210––
Radim Jaros
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:19 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Radim Jaros below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 75.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 3–0 Radim Jaros Radim Jaros has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:19What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Motacek
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1417 vs Jaros 1126
Motacek
Correct
both rated, 291 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 80% vs Jaros 20%
Motacek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 60% vs Jaros 10%
Motacek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Jaros -3
Jaros
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Motacek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.28 / Jaros 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Motacek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13085193
Motacek1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jaros3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 20 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMotacek3wins
AwayJaros0wins
Motacek leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek2Jaros1n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
S2Motacek3Jaros0n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S3Motacek2Jaros1n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMotacekJarosM − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.725.7+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekJarosBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 20 vs 95 / 25355%37.6%11 / 20 vs 95 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.034.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.28/Jaros 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek—11118123R. Jaros—6811101
WSep 5 · 15:35T. Motacek—51111113R. Jaros—119801
WAug 29 · 16:35T. Motacek—1111113R. Jaros—1850
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771LAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113
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