TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081978
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1195118111012––
Radek Hruby
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Radek Hruby below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 73 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 55.8%
73 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomas Motacek 2–2 Radek Hruby Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1393 vs Hruby 1287
Motacek
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 60% vs Hruby 40%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 40% vs Hruby 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek -1 · Hruby +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.67 / Hruby 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Motacek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13081978
Motacek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Hruby2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMotacek2wins
AwayHruby2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek2Hruby2n = 4split evenly
S2Motacek2Hruby2n = 4split evenly
S3Motacek2Hruby2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMotacekHrubyM − HBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.833.5+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekHrubyBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 16 vs 51 / 13550%37.8%8 / 16 vs 51 / 135Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.67/Hruby 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hruby won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 5 · 17:44T. Motacek—91111113R. Hruby—117891
LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek—1158101R. Hruby—91111123
WAug 28 · 21:05T. Motacek—1111113R. Hruby—8770
LAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek—91070R. Hruby—1112113
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113LAug 29 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008118151M. Chmelicek1.7311911173
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout1.57131110113R. Hruby2.251161291LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113LAug 28 · 19:35R. Hruby2.75491291M. Chmelicek1.40111110113
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