TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046367
Played Aug 30Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111161012119––
Radek Hruby
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Radek Hruby below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-6
Point 76 set 4, 7-6 — our read held Petr Pesout at 56.2%
76 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Pesout 5–3 Radek Hruby Radek Hruby has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Pesout
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1333 vs Hruby 1241
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 40% vs Hruby 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 40% vs Hruby 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -1 · Hruby -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.57 / Hruby 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pesout)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13046367
Pesout1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Hruby2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 16 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePesout5wins
AwayHruby3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderPesout leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesout66.7%2 of 3
AwayHruby40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout3Hruby5n = 8Hruby took 5 of 8
S2Pesout5Hruby3n = 8Pesout took 5 of 8
S3Pesout2Hruby6n = 8Hruby took 6 of 8
S4Pesout4Hruby2n = 6Pesout took 4 of 6
S5Pesout3Hruby1n = 4Pesout took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricPesoutHrubyP − HBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match35.440.5−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutHrubyBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 315 vs 49 / 13146%37.4%145 / 315 vs 49 / 131Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.57/Hruby 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 30 · 14:35P. Pesout—131110113R. Hruby—1161291
WJul 12 · 17:20P. Pesout—111157113R. Hruby—58111182
WJul 12 · 15:35P. Pesout—1111411123R. Hruby—136118102
WMay 24 · 16:05P. Pesout—811114113R. Hruby—11961162
LMay 3 · 17:35P. Pesout—3420R. Hruby—1111113
LMay 3 · 16:05P. Pesout—11341122R. Hruby—911116113
WMar 15 · 18:50P. Pesout—91112113R. Hruby—1191081
LMar 15 · 16:35P. Pesout—5380R. Hruby—1111113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182
R. Hruby10
LSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113LSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113WSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113WSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123WAug 30 · 17:05R. Hruby2.10116811113R. Jaros1.6741111972WAug 30 · 16:35R. Hruby2.101111113R. Jaros1.679550LAug 30 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.3311411113R. Hruby3.25811881LAug 28 · 21:05R. Hruby1.538770T. Motacek2.381111113WAug 28 · 20:35T. Motacek1.5791070R. Hruby2.251112113LAug 28 · 19:35R. Hruby2.75491291M. Chmelicek1.40111110113
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