TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085143
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117911411––
Petr Pesout
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 73 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 10–9 Petr Pesout Petr Pesout has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1371 vs Pesout 1372
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Pesout 80%
Pesout
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Pesout 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -1 · Pesout +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.91 / Pesout 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13085143
Chmelicek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 58 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Pesout1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayPesout7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPesout85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek3Pesout7n = 10Pesout took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek5Pesout5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmelicek2Pesout8n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S4Chmelicek2Pesout6n = 8Pesout took 6 of 8
S5Chmelicek3Pesout1n = 4Chmelicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekPesoutC − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.740.9−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 462 vs 149 / 32147.6%46.4%220 / 462 vs 149 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.91/Pesout 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek—811611113P. Pesout—11511852
WAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—121188113P. Pesout—103111182
LAug 29 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—914791P. Pesout—111211113
LJul 19 · 09:34M. Chmelicek—791181P. Pesout—11117113
LJul 19 · 06:35M. Chmelicek—9780P. Pesout—1111113
LJul 18 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—1011861P. Pesout—12911113
LJul 18 · 12:35M. Chmelicek—6990P. Pesout—1111113
LJun 14 · 09:35M. Chmelicek—11511111P. Pesout—41113133
LJun 14 · 06:35M. Chmelicek—68111152P. Pesout—111178113
WJun 7 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—111165113P. Pesout—58111182
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123LSep 5 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.301181191R. Hruby3.4091113113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182WAug 30 · 15:35R. Jaros2.38101150P. Pesout1.531213113
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