TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046446
Played Aug 30Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113511––––
Petr Pesout
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:07 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Petr Pesout below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 62 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Petr Pesout at 61.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H Radim Jaros 4–12 Petr Pesout Radim Jaros has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Pesout
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1211 vs Pesout 1353
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 20% vs Pesout 60%
Pesout
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 30% vs Pesout 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros -1 · Pesout +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jaros form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 2.38 / Pesout 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Pesout)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #13046446
Jaros2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Pesout1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJaros2wins
AwayPesout8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJaros50%2 of 4
AwayPesout100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jaros4Pesout6n = 10Pesout took 6 of 10
S2Jaros0Pesout10n = 10Pesout took 10 of 10
S3Jaros2Pesout8n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S4Jaros2Pesout3n = 5Pesout took 3 of 5
S5Jaros2Pesout1n = 3Jaros took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarosPesoutJ − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.340.9−8.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosPesoutBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 238 vs 144 / 31239.1%46.2%93 / 238 vs 144 / 312Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutJaros 2.38/Pesout 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 17:04R. Jaros—1412411113P. Pesout—121411872
LAug 29 · 15:05R. Jaros—9880P. Pesout—1111113
LJun 14 · 08:35R. Jaros—53110P. Pesout—1111133
LMay 24 · 17:45R. Jaros—741251P. Pesout—111110113
LMay 24 · 14:05R. Jaros—95120P. Pesout—1111143
LMay 7 · 14:05R. Jaros—52120P. Pesout—1111143
LMay 3 · 14:05R. Jaros—11111091P. Pesout—91312113
LMar 28 · 12:05R. Jaros—131071252P. Pesout—11121110113
LMar 26 · 15:05R. Jaros—11580P. Pesout—1311113
WMar 7 · 13:35R. Jaros—117112113P. Pesout—61151162
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182
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