TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076890
Played Sep 4Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511111––––
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 44 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 66.7%
44 points played in total.
H2H Radim Jaros 4–6 Matyas Rojka Radim Jaros has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Rojka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Rojka
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1170 vs Rojka 1341
Rojka
Correct
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 0% vs Rojka 20%
Rojka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 10% vs Rojka 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros -5 · Rojka -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Rojka) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 3.25 / Rojka 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Rojka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13076890
Jaros3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog29% won 20 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Rojka1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJaros4wins
AwayRojka6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRojka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJaros66.7%4 of 6
AwayRojka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jaros6Rojka4n = 10Jaros took 6 of 10
S2Jaros4Rojka6n = 10Rojka took 6 of 10
S3Jaros4Rojka6n = 10Rojka took 6 of 10
S4Jaros1Rojka5n = 6Rojka took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarosRojkaJ − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.336.9−4.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 242 vs 89 / 18738.4%47.6%93 / 242 vs 89 / 187Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RojkaJaros 3.25/Rojka 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Rojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 22 · 18:05R. Jaros—10950M. Rojka—1211113
LMay 9 · 17:50R. Jaros—51220M. Rojka—1114113
LMay 9 · 14:05R. Jaros—311741M. Rojka—11711113
LMay 8 · 18:05R. Jaros—6511111M. Rojka—11118133
LFeb 20 · 17:35R. Jaros—1164101M. Rojka—51111123
WFeb 6 · 11:05R. Jaros—1112113M. Rojka—91030
WDec 18 · 18:05R. Jaros—11128113M. Rojka—9101191
WDec 18 · 15:05R. Jaros—1181310113M. Rojka—911111232
LDec 11 · 14:45R. Jaros—123751M. Rojka—101111113
WDec 11 · 11:05R. Jaros—1111133M. Rojka—88110
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
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